Germansplaining: Inside the head of Germany’s next chancellor

A few years back, after Friedrich Merz had twice flopped in bids to lead the CDU – despite the party’s youth wing Junge Union (JU) treating him like the second coming – a senior party official summed it up for me: “It’s the James Dean effect. His career died so early, he became a legend. Especially among those too young to remember him.”

Merz’s political career hit the skids in the early 2000s, courtesy of Angela Merkel, his arch-rival ever since. But next Sunday’s election will likely do the opposite – propel him straight into the Bundeskanzleramt. So, who is he?

The short answer: if Merkel was an outlier in the CDU, Merz is the party’s conservative prototype. So much so that some see him as a relic from the Helmut Kohl era, wondering pointedly “Can yesterday’s man shape the future?”.

But there’s a long answer, too. By 2009, fed up with Merkel’s policies, Merz quit parliament for the private sector, juggling roles as a lawyer, consultant, and lobbyist. He sat on supervisory boards such as Bosch, EY, Borussia Dortmund, and HSBC Trinkaus, but most notably chaired BlackRock Germany’s supervisory board until 2020.

His wealth and a knack for putting his foot in his mouth make him a tough sell for some voters, especially in the east. He once called his €1million income “upper middle class” (it puts him in the top 5% of all Germans).

Another reason for the famous German Sozialneid (class envy) is his pilot’s license. The 69-year-old usually flies to Berlin with his Diamond DA62, a propeller plane, for parliamentary sessions.

Lefty paper Taz reported that Merz has taken off at least 160 times since 2022, clocking over 50,000 kilometres and emitting 23 tons of CO₂, well above average. Normally, the money, the corporate ties and the plane would all be easy attack lines. And his political adversaries have tried them out.

But with Germany’s economy on the ropes and climate concerns taking a backseat, his supposed business acumen is working in Merz’s favour, even if he’s never actually run a company.

What’s most striking about Merz is his tenacity. He waited years for Merkel to step down, convinced 2018 was his moment – only to lose to another woman. He tried again in 2021 and lost against Armin Laschet. Others would have packed it in, but Merz stuck it out, loyally backing Laschet’s campaign.

When it all ended in a disaster four years ago, CDU was desperate for a reboot. This time, they let the members, not just delegates, pick the next leader. Merz won by a landslide and under him, the demoralised parliamentary group quickly regained confidence.

His stamina says a lot about how much he wants this, and how right he thinks he is for the job. He’s a gifted speaker, but at six-foot-six one of his shortcomings is a tendency to look down on people, literally and figuratively. He’s certainly never suffered from imposter syndrome – arguably a useful trait when facing the likes of Trump.

The downside? Women don’t warm to him, according to the polls, Nor does Gen Z. Men, however, seem generally impressed by his ‘man of action’ demeanour.

Merz’s biggest enemy has often been Merz. Unlike Olaf Scholz, who relishes a dismissive “Nö” when dodging questions, Merz speaks his mind – a habit that regularly backfires (although he’s been remarkably disciplined lately).

His off-the-cuff remarks have let progressives paint him as misogynistic, homophobic, and racist. He isn’t, though. He’s just an old-school conservative from Sauerland, a hilly backwater in South Westphalia.

Born into a local patrician family in Brilon (pop. 25,000), he’s the eldest of four. His grandfather was mayor, his father a judge, his mum is from a Hugenot family. Merz and his wife Charlotte, a judge and director of the local court in Arnsberg, have been married for 44 years. They met at law school in 1981, have three children and seven grandkids. They love the countryside and enjoy Wanderungen (hiking).

Much as he’s rooted there, Merz has serious international ties. He once chaired Atlantik Brücke, an influential transatlantic network, and was appointed commissioner for Brexit in 2017, an unpaid advisory position for the state of North Rhine Westphalia. His political career actually started in the European Parliament from 1989 until 1994.

Economically, he’s a disciple of Ludwig Erhard’s “prosperity for all” mantra. And this will be his biggest challenge in the age of geo-economic conflicts, with AfD circling like vultures, waiting for the moderates to fail. He has vowed to keep them at bay.

One thing that might help? He’s ambidextrous – born left-handed, forced to use his right at school. Given what’s at stake for Germany, he’ll need both hands.