The former Tory chairman and Brexiteer Lord Ashcroft, who now sees himself as a chaos agent in British politics, is at it again. Best known for his pre-referendum book that reported untrue claims that Remain supporter David Cameron had performed a sex act with the head of a dead pig, Ashcroft’s latest wheeze is a poll ahead of the Runcorn and Helsby by-election that shows Reform about to take the seat with a nine-point lead on Labour.
But experts are asking why Ashcroft’s poll seems to underrepresent areas where Labour might be expected to perform strongly and overrepresent those where Reform seems strongest. The social media channel Britain Elects said: “The flaw in the Lord Ashcroft poll is it undersamples (after weighting) the least Reform-friendly parts of the seat by 21pts. And oversamples the most by 20pts. The Gowy villages & Helsby make up 22% of the seat’s electorate. But only 1% of the poll’s sample.”
Its own model shows Labour likely to retain the disgraced Mike Amesbury’s seat by three points.
