Stop worrying about a Le Pen backlash

Eight current or former RN MEPs were also found guilty, including Louis Aliot, one of the party’s most senior figures. Most importantly, 56-year-old Le Pen has now been barred from running for office for five years, meaning that she will not be a candidate in the 2027 election.

It will, as a result, be the first time that anyone under the age of 30 in France will go to the polls without seeing her on the ballot. Because her party is a dynasty, it will be the first presidential election since 1981 which won’t feature a Le Pen on the ballot. Isn’t that remarkable?

Well, that depends on who you ask, of course. Le Pen was found guilty and prevented from running and immediately it began. “Can’t you see this is good news for the far right?” the chorus sang mournfully. “Can’t you see this will rally her base? Allow her to paint herself as a martyr? Make her protégé Jordan Bardella run an even better campaign as a fresh face?”.

The message was clear, in newspaper columns and on social media: anyone rejoicing at the news was a chump, and deserved all that misery coming for all of us anyway.

The far right can only ever win, no matter the hand they are dealt, and any form of celebration at their misfortune must be treated in the way that we treat children who still believe in Father Christmas.

It isn’t an entirely incomprehensible school of thought. Populists really have been having quite the swell time lately. Turning towards the US shows us that if a fascist party and a majority of the electorate love each other very much, there isn’t much anyone can do to stop them from building something together.

Still, though much has been made of the need not to obey in advance, another worthwhile piece of advice ought to be that you shouldn’t preemptively give up hope. Sure, it is possible that slick, fresh-faced 29-year-old Bardella will win the next election, having finally managed to move the party away from its toxic roots. Sure, Le Pen herself may run again in 2032 and finally reach the Elysée.

Equally, it is entirely possible that French voters will struggle to vote for a man in his early thirties, seeing as so much was made of Macron being 39 when he was first elected. Bardella may also prove to be more lightweight than expected, especially without his mentor standing behind him.

Even if he does succeed externally, he may well struggle to unite the Rassemblement National, a chaotic and fractious party, which has only ever been kept in line by having a Le Pen at the helm. In short, and as is so often the case in life: things may go right, or they may go wrong. There is, at this stage, no point trying to predict the future.

What we do know is that, without Le Pen or Macron being able to stand at the next election, both the traditional left and the traditional right will regain some breathing space. The centre left started making a quiet comeback at last year’s snap election, and can perhaps find a way to electability again.

Crucially, everyone else can now take a moment to catch their breath. The Le Pens have been haunting French politics for over half a century, and they have now been stopped in their tracks. A group of people committed a number of crimes and they will now face the consequences, just as any other group of people would.

Justice has prevailed and that, if nothing else, should be worth celebrating. We know, sadly, this is no longer a given, even in countries that should know better. The war isn’t won, but hell, if we can’t rejoice after a victory in battle, then when can we?