Giorgia Meloni, the Queenmaker

The article in The Economist was headlined: “The three women who will shape Europe”. It caused a huge stir in Italy because Giorgia Meloni, the Italian prime minister, was pictured in the centre, with the president of the European Commission, Ursula Von der Leyen, and Marine Le Pen, the French populist, on either side of her. Meloni, the image seemed to suggest, was the most important.

The image was fitting for a person whose newly-formed nickname is “kingmaker”. Ever since she announced her candidacy for the European Parliament back in April, both Le Pen and Von der Leyen have been in contact with Meloni, trying to engineer an alliance. No one would have suspected this when she first took office at Palazzo Chigi in 2022.

Meloni’s political clout is formidable. In the European parliamentary elections, she’s the leading candidate for all five constituencies – it’s a vote for her. Moreover, the centre-right Von der Leyen has sung her praises, assuring people that she’s pro-EU despite her yelling “bring down this EU,” at the Conservative Political Action Conference in 2019.

Ten people from Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party (Fratelli d’Italia) are currently MEPs and sit in the European Parliament as members of the European Conservative and Reformist party grouping – Meloni is one of the ECR’s two presidents. Italy will elect a total of 76 MEPs – Meloni knows she has a lot of work on her hands. But what benefit can she offer Von der Leyen and Le Pen?

With Von der Leyen, the relationship has been building for about a year. The unlikely duo were in Ukraine together to mark two years of war and have travelled together to North Africa in an attempt to broker deals to help slow migration. Von der Leyen even visited Emilia-Romagna after its devastating floods last year and the two hugged when they greeted each other.

“I am working very well with Giorgia Meloni, as with all the heads of state and government, it is my task,” Von der Leyen told the Italian press. “We will see who the pro-Europeans will be and she clearly is one and she’s very clear about being anti-Putin.”

Von der Leyen is part of the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), which has been the largest European party since 1999. Meloni is familiar with the EPP – until 2014, Fratelli d’Italia was a member. Italy’s current Foreign Minister, Forza Italia’s Antonio Tajani, is also vice president of EPP. It makes sense for Meloni to stay close to this large centre right bloc.

The benefits for Von der Leyen however are harder to see, though she has recognised that Europe is trending rightwards. Rumour has it that her centre-left coalition is threatening to stop her from running for a second term if she partners with Meloni. She needs 361 votes from her fellow MEPs to retain her position.

For Le Pen, the need for an alliance is perhaps a bit more pressing. Members of Le Pen’s French party Rassemblement National (National Front) have said they would not sit with the far-right German group Alternative for Germany after its lead candidate told La Repubblica that those who wore SS outfits were not necessarily criminals. They were subsequently booted out of her far-right European parliament party, the Identity and Democracy (ID) group, which is also where Matteo Salvini’s League party sits.

She recently called on Meloni to form a “supergroup” saying: “It’s time to unite. We cannot miss an opportunity like this.”

If the latest projections are anything to go by, both the National Front (predicted to win 30 seats) and Brothers of Italy (prediction: 22 seats) are their respective countries’ frontrunners. The two have enough in common, though they differ in their stance on Russia.

And no one could be happier about the prospect of this particular “supergroup” than Meloni’s ally, Viktor Orbán, prime minister of Hungary, who said: “The future of the sovereignist camp in Europe, and of the right in general, is now in the hands of two women”.

Yet he is mistaken. Meloni hosted a rally in the centre of Rome on June 1, five days ahead of the beginning of the three-day election. She made it clear she wanted liberals gone from within the European Parliament. She made it clear she was not happy with the current state of Europe, with her ubiquitous slogan “With Giorgia Italy changes Europe.” She made it clear that Le Pen is not on her agenda, as she was not mentioned once during her speech.

Is she dancing with them both for fun? The answer is probably yes. Meloni appears to be in the game for the long haul and at a European level, she has her cards close to her chest. We’ll have to wait until June 9 to see what she decides.