Will Britain punish Brexiteer MPs at the election?

“Skydiving, motorcycling, fast catamaran sailing.” The sentence sounded like David Brent revealing his plans for the future after being made redundant by Wernham Hogg. In fact, it was how Brexiteer MP Steve Baker says he will occupy his time if he gets the heave-ho from the voters of Wycombe on July 4.

The former European Research Group leader was collared by Newsnight’s Victoria Derbyshire (who is spectacularly good at her job) shortly after that rain-sodden election announcement by Rishi Sunak (who is spectacularly bad at his). Baker noted that during his career as a self-styled Brexit hardman he had “divided opinion… I’ve united wings of the party, divided wings of the party. I’ve manufactured power out of weakness and won.” No doubt to those who served under him he was a friend first and a boss second, probably an entertainer third.

“I am widely expected to lose,” Baker admitted cheerfully. His majority is 4,214 and boundary changes have moved the true blue village of Hazlemere into neighbouring Chesham & Amersham. The UK Polling Report website, whose model is based on an adjusted uniform national swing, suggests Baker may come in 25 points behind Labour’s Emma Reynolds.

Wycombe is therefore one to watch in the early hours of July 5. No doubt Theresa May, whom Baker helped to force from office, will be looking on sympathetically.

The major parties are determined that Brexit will barely get a mention in their campaigns. Yet according to YouGov, voters still rate it a more important issue than education, transport, tax and pensions. The election offers those voters a chance to show their disapproval for the MPs most closely associated with taking Britain out of the EU.

Will there be a Brexit factor in the redrawn seat of North East Somerset and Hanham, where the UK Polling Report puts former minister for Brexit opportunities Jacob Rees-Mogg 21 points down? Or in nearby North Somerset, where it says ex-Brexit trade secretary Liam Fox is trailing by 3.5 points?

Not even landslides are likely to see off big-name Brexit backers like Suella Braverman, Priti Patel, hapless former Brexit secretary David Davis or, disappointingly, Michael Gove. But according to UK Polling Report, Lee Anderson is down by 20 points in Ashfield, Andrea Jenkyns by 25 points in Morley & Outwood and Iain Duncan Smith by a mighty 30 points in Chingford & Woodford Green.

Might all or some of these be saved by grateful Leave voters, happy with how things are going so far? Well, that’s possible.

But if the Brexiteer dominoes fall – Rees-Mogg, Baker, Duncan Smith, Fox, Anderson, Jenkyns and possibly Esther McVey and Penny Mordaunt, neck-and-neck in Tatton and Portsmouth North respectively – the next prime minister and leader of the opposition should take time out from their celebrations and post-mortem to ponder what that means to the future of Britain and Europe. Which remains just a fast catamaran away.