Imagine that, for the price of a few dinners, you could influence government policy, or even secure a fast-track planning decision that yields a multimillion-pound profit. You might have to endure some pretty unappetising food and equally unpalatable company but judge that the investment was worthwhile. Such calculations may be unedifying, but just might colour the thinking of those contemplating giving financial backing to politicians and their parties.
Now, however, with the local elections just days away, it seems that donors may be looking more sceptically at the value for money they get and, in particular, whether they want to continue backing the Conservatives, save the money or even hand it over to a different party.
The attractions of political giving are obviously more immediate if the recipients are in government or close to it, but people with strong convictions have often been prepared to take the long view and continue backing their party of choice through difficult periods of electoral unpopularity. In a two-party system such as the one that has long dominated in the UK, where the choice between philosophies could seem stark, trade unions have funded Labour, and big business and the wealthy have backed the Tories.
Caricatures of the union leaders enjoying “beer and sandwiches” at No 10 when Labour was in power were no more exaggerated than the designation of the major brewery owners as “the beerage” because they wielded such influence on the Tory Party they backed, and their loyalty was rewarded with honours as well as a relatively hospitable environment for their part of the hospitality industry.
But the UK’s political landscape has become more complicated and, while some Labour supporters may be less than ecstatic about various moves the government has made, their qualms are minor compared with the discontent on the right. Revelling in the Tories’ discomfort, who else but Nigel Farage?
He may no longer be best buddies with Donald Trump, and his flirtation with Elon Musk ended in tears, but he has emerged unscathed from such setbacks and is looking set for significant wins on May 1. His Reform Party may even pick up three of the mayoralties being contested.
For months now, opinion polls have been putting Reform at almost the same level as Labour and Conservative, but how those results might play out in the local elections is not easy to predict. Even the cloudiest of crystal balls, however, is forecasting a rout for the Tories and, even though the party has been trying to manage expectations down from an already low start, fingers of blame are firmly pointed in the direction of Kemi Badenoch.
The Tory leader has failed to make any positive impression since taking over from Rishi Sunak, who, you may recall, succeeded Liz Truss to spend a brief spell as prime minister of the UK. The fact that this was never intended to be the case is a perfect metaphor for the current Conservative Party. The candidate favoured by those with influence over party machinations was James Cleverly, but the plotters bungled their operation and it was Badenoch who emerged victorious.
The grouping that once gloried in being the natural party of government in the UK showed itself incapable of even fixing the shortlist for its leadership election. Yet their judgment was correct, even if their tactics were inept.
Badenoch has failed to give any sense of direction to the Tories and, at a time of global turmoil, she seems a rather marginal figure. In parliament, her party risks ridicule every time its members criticise the government or call on it to do this or that because, goes the refrain, it had 14 years to tackle whatever issue is under discussion and singularly failed to do so.
In the Lords, Tories are entertaining themselves, and infuriating others, by tabling numerous irrelevant amendments and dragging out debates. Some are treating the legislation to oust the remaining hereditary peers from sitting in parliament as an excuse for sharing their knowledge of history and extolling the virtues of having a country seat as a means of increasing regional representation.
While Sir Keir Starmer is emerging as something of a statesman and a leader of some influence as he attempts to deal with Donald Trump’s tariffs and treatment of Ukraine, Badenoch simply looks irrelevant. She seems to lack the personal skills to woo supporters, but neither has she come close to answering the simple question of what it is her party believes in and how it would come close to achieving it.
Some former donors, such as the property magnate Nick Candy, have already defected to Reform. Others may follow, but while Farage can undoubtedly turn on the charm for a time, his Trumpian narcissism makes him a difficult prospect for those who want to have some influence on the party he leads.
Whether it should be possible to buy political influence is another matter and one which governments seem remarkably loath to tackle. But, as long as it is permitted, there will be those attracted to the opportunities it brings.
Back in 2017, when Theresa May led the Tories to a dire election result in which they lost their overall majority and stayed on in government only with the help of the DUP, some donors, furious not only about the result but also the dreadful campaign that had produced it, demanded the return of their cash. It was only fear of Jeremy Corbyn and the prospect that he might soon lead Labour to victory that quietened them.
But that threat has gone away, and to many former supporters, the Conservatives simply do not look like a promising investment.
