Why Farage is targeting angry young men

Nigel Farage has never truly underrated his potential as a politician. Even when he seemed to be cultivating an image of himself as something of a comedy act, it was only a guise designed to dupe critics into underestimating his abilities and ambition. He always took himself seriously and now others are doing so too.

His Reform party won five seats at July’s general election, one of them going to the sitting MP, Lee Anderson, a former deputy chairman of the Conservative Party who defected to join Farage in March this year. It would not be surprising if at least one other MP soon made the walk from the Tory benches to join the Farage five: Suella Braverman has been keeping remarkably quiet in recent months but it is not her natural state and there is some expectation that she could go next.

In the meantime, Reform has picked up another couple of names that carry some clout, at least in Conservative circles. The electors sacked Andrea Jenkyns but Boris Johnson rewarded her loyalty with the title of Dame and, having failed to make any impression on the public as a minor minister, she did garner some attention with the announcement last month that she was joining Reform. She described it as ‘coming home’.

At the beginning of December, she was followed by Tim Montgomerie, a relatively high-profile Tory who launched the Conservative Home website and co-founded the Centre for Social Justice.

The fact that they have chosen to go now rather than waiting to see whether Kemi Badenoch can turn round the fortunes of their old party indicates that they have given up on the Tories and decided that Reform is the future for the right in the UK.

There is good reason why they might be thinking that way. Back in July, a poll by JL Partners showed that, amongst 16 and 17-year-olds, Reform was ranked second to Labour. There was quite a gap: Labour stood at 39 per cent and Reform at 23 per cent, with the Tories on a derisory 5 per cent. However, amongst 16 and 17-year-old males, the numbers were much more dramatic: Labour and Reform tied on 35 per cent each. The girls are much more moderate: only 12 per cent of them would back Reform.

Farage knows where his likely supporters lie, hence only this summer he was referring to the fact that many boys felt ‘emasculated’ and citing ‘an important voice’ for these young men (who will, of course, be eligible to vote at the next general election). The voice in question was that of Andrew Tate, the notorious character who has been holed up in Romania for many months as accusations of assault and sex trafficking have swirled around him.

The proudly self-professed misogynist, who is half British and half American, has said that, following the Trump victory, he will probably try to head back to the US but he is unlikely to be setting foot in the UK any time soon.

Nonetheless, Tate has a massive following, cultivated online, where his displays of bling and outrageous comments on ‘the weaker sex’ have given him unlikely guru status. Farage saw advantage in appealing to the Tate supporters.

In the UK today, as in many European countries, disaffection is widespread and the result of an assortment of causes. The vote in favour of Brexit encompassed discontent about much more than the country’s relationship with the EU and the vote for Labour at the last election was as much due to general malaise as to disagreement with the Tories over any particular policy.

Nevertheless, one group that research consistently highlights as feeling, often with good reason, disadvantaged and overlooked is young white working-class boys. Tate knows how to reach them and Farage has more appeal for them than Kemi Badenoch or Keir Starmer.

Many of them are without qualifications or jobs; they feel threatened by immigrants, many of whom are better qualified and more prepared to work hard for little pay. They don’t feel that government understands them – or cares about them.

At some stage, Farage and his colleagues might have to give some consideration as to how they would practically deal with this group and the other factions in the broken society that the UK has become but they do not show signs of seriously worrying about that yet.

At its core is the problem with which the Conservative Party has had to wrestle for many years. Most of their potential voters believe they want a low tax, small state, economy but they also want a thriving National Health Service, public services that consistently deliver and a benefits system which, while clamping down on ‘scroungers’, whoever they may be, will always pay out generously if they themselves are in need.

Rachel Reeves, as chancellor, is having to wrestle with that quandary now and demonstrating just how difficult it is. It may be why the latest incarnation of Labour’s missions, now milestones, make no mention of social care, the burning issue that no government dares to touch.

For now, Reform has the luxury of increasing power with no responsibility. It is perfect for Nigel Farage.