UCLA says the UK is not OK

Because frankly the rest of the world seems to have a better idea of the state we are in, than we do.

Take the latest report by the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) into the state of our nation. They have used something called the Berggruen Governance Index (BGI) which assesses a country by measuring how the state provides public goods, through the interaction of democratic accountability and the quality of government.

Basically, then, it can measure how good our democracy is, how good our government is – and how good is the resulting provision of things like education, health care, equality and environmental protection.

As an advanced Western democracy, the UK is and always has been near the top of the BGI league table, but we are faltering and as the UCLA makes clear, the reasons are obvious.

It is in the area of state capacity that the UK is failing and falling down the league table. The report says, “While multiple factors are contributing to erosion in state capacity, the interplay between austerity and political dysfunction stands out”. Austerity ate away at the ability of the state and the last 14 years have been one political disaster after another.

With Brexit dominating both government actions and political bandwidth the result was that “needed structural reforms were either halted or put aside “to get Brexit done.” Accordingly, when a crisis like the Covid-19 pandemic hit, “the UK had both a less disciplined leadership and a weaker governance structure than in the past.”

The prospects for the future are not much better. Austerity may have starved government of the ability to get things done, but we have also suffered from a long and steady economic decline that if not reversed will be a disaster.

Our infrastructure spending is pathetic and well below that of France, Germany, the EU average and even Italy. Productivity is desperately bad, and our debt interest payments are now much higher than France, Germany, the EU average and now are level with Italy and destined to overtake even them in coming years.

Can you imagine anyone saying in 2000 that we would be underperforming Italy? No, me neither but that is what years of Tory stagnation will do for a country.

As for other issues, levelling-up has totally failed – in fact regional disparities are widening. The chronic lack of investment means crumbling transport and a lack of housing where people need to work. As this report puts it “Lagging rates of homebuilding and the curtailment of the HS2 rail line to Manchester are perhaps the most obvious symbols of these alarming trends.”

In conclusion, “Post 2010 austerity and the decision to leave the EU have left long-term scars on the UK economy and are wearing on the country’s social cohesion. While its economic drift away from other wealthy countries is remarkable”.

We need more investment, more spending, radical reform, much higher growth, regional development, better health care and training, and lower debt. Square that circle if you can.

Brexit and 14 years of complete mismanagement have left us in a parlous state. We are adrift and losing ground to our neighbours and competitors and they will soon be out of sight.

That is how others see us – and they are right.