The Brexit problems lining up for Starmer

The data from two opinion polls on Brexit released this week look like good news for Keir Starmer. One, by Savanta for Left Foot Forward, found that 53% of voters back the new prime minister’s ambition for closer links with the European Union, with only 20% in favour of a more distant relationship.

The second, for YouGov, suggests that while the public backs rejoining the EU (by 53% to 36%), the customs union (by 49% to 20%) and the single market (by 48% to 25%), it does not believe Labour’s election victory gives Starmer the mandate to do any of those things. And it reports that only 7% now consider Britain’s future relationship with the bloc a key issue, as against 63% just before the December 2019 general election.

On the surface, then, it’s an endorsement of the new government’s line on a matter that voters agree is no longer a top priority. But can the agreement hold? Three things should make those who want to consign Brexit to the backburner slightly nervous.

The first, likely to have the biggest impact in terms of the news agenda, is the new EU entry/exit system (EES) for travellers, which is due to come into force towards the end of the year. There are apocalyptic warnings that this paperless border system, which includes the collection and then the checking of fingerprints, could cause 15-hour delays for those travelling to Europe using the Eurotunnel or the port of Dover, and make Eurostar passport control at London St Pancras and Paris Gare Du Nord an even less pleasant experience than it is today.

Second are the checks on some plant and animal products being exported from the EU to Britain, which came into force at the end of April. Despite suggestions that far fewer tests than anticipated are actually taking place, problems are already emerging. Some tomato and pepper seeds are taking an extra six weeks to be delivered, creating disruptive backlogs to farmers’ growing schedules. Shortages of some foods and price rises may follow.

Without a magic wand to create better infrastructure and hire hundreds more border workers, Starmer can do little about the impact of the EES. He hopes to lessen the impact of border checks and other red tape by quickly reaching an agreement on these with the EU and its Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, who he is scheduled to meet towards the end of summer.

But the PM’s third problem is what the EU will ask in return. A visa scheme offering limited freedom of movement for 18-to-30-year-olds, more British money to rejoin EU schemes like Erasmus, a new agreement for EU boats to fish in British waters and a defence deal that gives Europe greater access to British military assets are all reportedly on the Brussels agenda.

All of these might sound sensible to readers of the New European, but they are politically awkward and will feed Brexit betrayal narratives for Nigel Farage and extreme Tory leadership candidates like Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick.

Starmer’s tricky situation is that, having assured voters that he could fix Brexit without getting rid of it, he now has to embark on the long, problematic and costly business of doing so – and to show progress, fast. As he embarks on the journey, he may reflect that on most occasions, the most direct route is usually the best.