Post-Brexit UK will be 15 years late in hitting its trade target

The UK is running late. About 15 years too late, and the government – plus Brexit – are to blame.

Figures have shown that the UK is behind schedule in meeting the Conservative government’s target of £1trillion in annual exports after trade has been greatly damaged by leaving the EU. The government’s own projections now claim that the value of British exports will not reach £1trillion until 2035.

In 2012, then prime minister David Cameron pledged this would be achieved by 2020. It didn’t happen. Nine years later, during his time at Downing Street, Boris Johnson revisited this promise, announcing in 2021 that the target would be met by 2030 – ten years later than his old school chum’s original date. Now, the Department of International Trade (DIT) estimates that it will not be achieved until 2035.

These projections, which also showed that exports are expected to fall to £707billion next year from £739billion in 2022, were part of a parliamentary answer given by trade minister Andrew Bowie. Since Brexit, over 40% of British products previously exported to the EU have vanished from European shelves. Yet Bowie still claims the blame for the trade deficit lay elsewhere.

He cited external factors, such the international financial crisis, as the cause for the UK’s lagging performance. Bowie added: “This has proven to be the case over the past year where we have experienced external shocks and a spike in inflation.” But when UK trade exports grew just 24.4% between 2010 and 2021, the lowest rate of growth from any of the G7 countries excluding Japan, this explanation does not quite add up.

None of this should be a surprise for the government. Four years ago, the Federation for Small Businesses (FSB) cautioned that seven in 10 British firms exporting to the EU were encountering problems, with one in four stopping exports entirely.

Brexiteers continue to point out that the UK is now able to strike independent free trade deals outside of the EU. Yet, with an increasing number of believers jumping ship, such as former environment secretary George Eustice who claimed the post-Brexit trade deal with Australia is “not actually a very good deal for the UK”, that argument is increasingly being met with raised eyebrows.

UK exporters who supply the EU are being battered. While they limp on to their ever-extending target deadline, questions are raised over what state they will be in when they get there. If they get there at all, that is.