Biden’s wake-up call to Europe

It was an unmistakable signal that Putin is prepared to inflict a second Chernobyl on Eastern Europe – and was followed by the deployment of 10,000 North Korean troops into the battlefield and the relentless seizure of Ukrainian territory by advancing Russian troops.

Putin is in this war to win, and he needs to win fast – because the Russian war economy is reaching the limits of its capacity to reproduce, and will – say Western experts – hit a wall sometime next year.

So Biden’s move, and the likely strikes using ATACMs missiles into the Russian rear, is both welcome and too late. While we in the West go about our everyday lives, Putin is waging a relentless war of aggression against the Ukrainian people and through them the international system that keeps us safe.

We could have said, back in 2022, that Ukraine is beyond our sphere of interest, and the atrocities committed by Russian troops beyond our capacity to care. But we did not.

Key Western institutions – the European Union, NATO and a solid bloc of democratic countries at the United Nations – pledged money, arms, intelligence and training for Ukraine, and repeatedly said they would stand with Kyiv for “as long as it takes”.

The mistake we then made was to believe wars like this can be “managed”, and don’t need to be won. Or rather, this was a mistake driven by Biden, and acquiesced to by European leaders obliged to defer to America because they lack the sheer physical and moral capacity to defend themselves.

So even if we now see a few spectacular strikes on Russian air bases and troop concentrations, Ukraine will remain on the defensive for at least another year – even if the incoming Trump administration does not pull the plug on their resistance altogether.

Strategically, Ukraine is in danger of losing this war. And we in Europe should be in no doubt what that might mean. At a human level we could see 10 million refugees across the continent: among them thousands of angry and psychologically distressed former combatants. 

At an economic level, it would give Putin control of 27% of the world’s grain harvest, and increased diplomatic leverage over the countries dependent on it.

At a geostrategic level it would mean simply this: that aggression pays. A country of 40 million people will see its language and culture crushed by Russian ethno-nationalism. And the aggression will not stop.

One of the hardest lessons learned by students of fascism in the 20th century was: take fascists at their word. When Putin issues “draft treaties” proposing to demilitarise Eastern Europe and return Poland, the Baltics and Romania to the status of buffer states, that is what he means to achieve.

It would dismember the EU and represent strategic defeat for NATO. Western Europe’s security would then rely entirely on America which, as we have seen, is no longer a reliable democracy.

There is a solution, but it involves the entire Western electorate heeding the wake-up call.

It is not clear yet how nakedly the Trump administration intends to betray Ukraine. The nomination of Marco Rubio, an ally of Ukraine, to the State Department may indicate Trump is prepared to play hardball with Putin to achieve some kind of deal that forces Ukraine to give territory away. 

But in all eventualities Ukraine is going to need an alliance of willing countries to help it defend itself.  And for at least the next four years that same “coalition of the willing” will need to stand together in the defence of Europe itself – because what Trump is ready to do to Ukraine he is also ready to do to us.

There are five action points that Western leaders should be urgently mobilising to achieve. First arm Ukraine to win: the combined economies of NATO are ten times bigger than Russia’s – and we have sophisticated weapons, intelligence sensors and control systems that could bring victory on the battlefield. Putting them to use to defend Ukraine is the best form of self defence for us.

Second, seize all of Russia’s $300bn frozen assets and use them to fund Kyiv’s resistance: most of them are in Europe and could be got hold of without permission from Trump.

Third, use Western air forces and air defences to create a defensive shield over Western Ukraine, covering all four nuclear power plants. Fourth: issue an immediate invitation to Ukraine to join Nato, and provide overt security guarantees until it does so. 

Finally, we in Europe need to be prepared to spend more on our self defence. Rule of thumb estimates in British defence circles say we’re going to need to spend between four and seven per cent of GDP on defence if Russian aggression succeeds and America walks away from the defence of Europe.

These are unpalatable figures, because they involve borrowing more and also reallocating priorities. One of the sorriest aspects to this situation is the incapability of front line politicians to face up to this fact, even as their own military commanders and civil servants discuss it openly.

The ATACMs strikes Biden has permitted will change very little. What will turn the tide is if the self-styled leaders of Europe actually start explaining to their populations that we are in existential peril, and summon them to step up.