Badenoch is a dud. How long does she have left?

If there was any previous suggestion that Kemi Badenoch had even a shred of a sense of humour, then her decision to lambast Sir Keir Starmer for his “arrogance” might have been taken as deliberately ironic. The Conservative leader, however, is not known for her ready wit, so her accusation in the Commons last week produced mirth at her expense, not his.

Even the Spectator, where Badenoch once worked and now edited by the man who was once her staunchest champion, Michael Gove, ran an article saying her use of “unparliamentary language” was symptomatic of how she “keeps going wrong at PMQs”.

Maybe Badenoch does not bother to read her own reviews, let alone learn from them, but she can be in no doubt that voters are not flocking back to the Conservative party following its defeat at last July’s general election. Nigel Farage’s Reform party now polls neck and neck with the Conservatives, or in some cases even marginally ahead. In interviews, she has dismissed support for Reform to “a protest vote”.

But while she explains this as a protest against the perceived failings of the previous Tory administration, particularly over immigration, there is also an element of protest over her leadership. Certainly, within the corridors of parliament, mutterings of discontent about her style have been mounting and now it is the substance, or lack of it, that is also criticised.

It seems unlikely that Badenoch will lead the party into the next election. There is time for her leadership skills to improve and for some enticing policies to emerge, but the prospects for such change are slight, and the Conservative party tends to be ruthless when deciding the future of a wobbling leader.

She was never the overwhelming favourite for the role but, faced with choosing its sixth leader in eight years, the party was not spoilt for choice. Badenoch had already shown herself to be a bit of a bruiser, prepared for a scrap over anything and never afraid to reinterpret her own remarks into something totally different or even deny having made them. In May 2023 she drove the generally good humoured speaker of the House of Commons into such fury that he spluttered “Who do you think you’re speaking to?”

But paid-up members of the Conservative party, not a vast cohort, were offered a choice of Badenoch or Robert Jenrick, who seemed to be in the process of morphing into the UK’s own JD Vance. There is a suggestion that insiders wanted James Cleverly on the ballot paper rather than one of the other two, but they bungled their ploy. Given the success of recent Tory strategies, this seems entirely plausible. If there were to be a change in leadership, Cleverly, who positioned himself as the sensible, moderate conservative, would be a favourite.

His challenge would be to win back the voters who backed the Tories at the last election but are now supporting Reform. The other option would be to opt for a leader much further to the right who could broker a deal with Farage that could deliver an electoral majority.

The political landscape, though, could by then look very different. There is already gossip in Westminster about who might replace Starmer if Labour’s performance does not improve. His chancellor, Rachel Reeves, managed to quell some of the noisier criticisms with her new-found boosterism and list of growth initiatives but, while they may well lead to a brighter future, that future is a long way off.

Meanwhile, much of the business world, once enthusiastic about the incoming Labour government, is deeply disappointed by the surprise increases in national insurance and reticence over improving relations with the EU.

Focus groups find that the raid on the winter fuel allowance continues to be a cause of real resentment, even among people unaffected by it. And while Reeves and Starmer may be very clear about why the growth they are so intent on pursuing is for the greater good of the country, they consistently fail to get this across in an inspiring vision.

Starmer may have many qualities but his communication skills would not get him past the first interview for many a client-facing role. If he cannot improve his act, he needs to find someone to do it for him before his party decides he is not the man to deliver a second term.

In short, both Tory and Labour leaders are looking weak. Badenoch will surely go first. Unless Starmer can change the political mood, his party might also start to look at him as a problem rather than a leader.