Who will be the next Pope?

But only Cardinals under the age of 80 can vote or officiate, and unlike the fictional dean played by Ralph Fiennes in Conclave, the Italian cardinal Re, at 91, is too old to enter the Sistine Chapel. 

Tradition has it that if the dean is too old to take on the conclave role, his deputy steps in. If he too is over 80, the responsibility automatically devolves in order of seniority to the next eligible cardinal bishop.

That means that, if the Pope were to die today, the conclave role would fall automatically to Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s current secretary of state. A career diplomat, Parolin regularly tops the list of potential papal candidates circulating in Rome and is currently the bookies’ favourite to be the next Pope.

While his star has dimmed considerably in the wake of a London property scandal and his personal association with the controversial Vatican-China deal which gave Chinese party officials input into papal appointments, he is still regarded as a skilled mediator and a calm, capable figure.  

Ed Condon is co-founder of the Catholic church news blog The Pillar. “If Francis is pushing Parolin forward now to lead the College of Cardinals, and with it the next conclave, it would be the closest this pope has come to winking at a possible successor – and that could in itself trigger interesting and perhaps unintended consequences.”

Francis has, for years now, carefully avoided the emergence or encouragement of an obvious successor with some even arguing he has gone a step further and deliberately cultivated a field of rival candidates.

Not all the cardinals appointed by Francis are progressives, with the most notable example, the arch conservative German cardinal, Gerhard Muller. Appointed in 2014, he was promoted in the same crop as the progressive Parolin.

Today, more than 60 per cent of the 138 cardinals eligible to vote in the conclave are Francis’s appointments, a statistical watershed that suggests his successor will at the very least share his vision. The reality, however, is far more complex and unpredictable – history shows that conclaves often exercise a logic of their own and can come to decisions that owe little to the Pope that created them.

“Francis realises that the church needs to decentralise itself and look at the geopolitical peripheries first because it is in those regions that you find disintegration of faith and marginalisation,” writes Dr Massimo Faggioli, a professor of theology and religious studies at Villanova University in Philadelphia who has studied Francis’ papacy. 

“He recognises that the most important sign of our times is the mass migration of populations, refugees and migrants, because of persecution and poverty. He sees a world of people who are re-settling and not a world of nations of settlers.”

At last count, 93 countries have cardinals who can vote in a conclave, according to the detailed Cardinalium Collegii website, compared to fewer than 50 countries when Francis was elected in 2013. Unlike previous popes however, Francis has very rarely invited the entire college to Rome for consultation and this, coupled with their vast, new geographic spread, means they know little of each other and may have never met face to face.

John Thavis, a former Rome bureau chief for the Catholic News Service who has reported on three papacies, told Reuters that this will also serve to limit the amount of pre-conclave manoeuvring: “The pope’s biggest influence on a future conclave will be in broadening participation and making the election of a pope a more global event.”

Ultimately, just as the perennial struggle between progressives and conservatives has plagued global Catholicism at least since death of Pope John Paul II I 2005 – and perhaps even going back to the Second Vatican Council of the mid 1960s – it will also be the defining tension that will occupy the minds of cardinals in the next conclave.

Women’s ordination, communion for divorcees, the blessing of same-sex couples and the use of the Latin Mass, are recurring motifs of Francis’ papacy – and will continue to be for the next Pope – not just because they continue to polarise the church hierarchy but because the 1.4 billion Catholic faithful worldwide can’t agree on them either.  

And while Popes in the past could simply revert to notions of papal infallibility demanding Catholics inside and outside the Holy See obey his will, Francis has been caught between a 21^st century rock and a hard place, unable to satisfy conservatives who believe he has gone too far, or the progressive wing frustrated that he has not reformed the Church enough.

According to the bookies, the shortest odds right now are with Pietro Parolin, on 4-1 to become the new Pope. But who are the cardinals considered the most serious frontrunners? 

The progressives

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, 69, president of the Italian Episcopal Conference and special envoy of the Pope for the Ukrainian conflict has declared himself open to the ordination of women, the blessing of same sex marriages and an outspoken advocate of inclusivity.

Portugal’s Jose Tolentino de Mendonça, 58, also an advocate of diversity and inclusivity on both social and spiritual issues. 

Robert Prevost, 68, and newly made a cardinal bishop, he worked in Peru and has been a powerful advocate for social and pastoral reform in the Church.

The moderates

Pietro Parolin, 69, secretary of state, seen as Francis’ right-hand man. 

Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, one of Benedict’s last cardinal appointments, but also seen as a trusted supporter and confidante of Francis. While regarded as a moderate, he has taken progressive views on immigration and social justice, perhaps making him a strong compromise candidate.

Claudio Gugerotti, 68, prefect for the Eastern churches, with wide diplomatic, interfaith, multicultural and political experience.

Angel Fernandez Artime, 63, has had a long career in Catholic education and while he has very conservative views on the education of youth, is regarded to be among the more moderate of the traditionalists.

Italian Roberto Repole, 59, one of the youngest of the cardinals, espouses conservative doctrinal views but is open to dialogue on social reform. 

Domenico Battaglia, 60, one of the most recently appointed cardinals, 

The conservatives

While Gerhard Muller, 77, is a significant figure in the traditionalist camp, an avowed supporter of Trump and is listed as ‘papabile’ he is not seen as a conservative frontrunner. However, some observers have noted that his friendship with several more moderate cardinals could throw up some surprises.

 Péter Erdő from Hungary, president of the European Bishops’ Conference, is critical of gay marriage and European nations accepting refugees and has forged strong ties with African bishops.

Ambongo Besungu from the Democratic Republic of the Congo emerged as a prominent conservative in January last year when he flew to Rome to deliver African bishops’ complaints about Fiducia Supplicans, which allowed the blessing of unmarried same-sex couples.

Dutch cardinal Wim Eijk has been a trenchant critic of Pope Francis on social issues, interfaith dialogue and of civil remarriage for couples after divorce.

With a 138-strong Conclave as it stands today, at least 92 votes will be required to win the papacy – 16 more than were needed to elect Pope Francis – and the race will be close and tight. While overt campaigning is frowned on, geopolitical realities and the new tensions between America and Europe will, without doubt, play a part. 

“Whenever the next conclave does happen, and obviously everyone hopes for Pope Francis’ swift and full recovery, the cardinals who meet to elect his successor will come from further afield than ever before – and know each other much less than ever before,” says Ed Condon.

“Under Francis, the practice of naming cardinals from out-of-the-way places, while often passing over more bishops in traditionally high-profile archdioceses, has certainly diversified the college. But the other side of that coin is the cardinal electors are in large part a mystery even to each other. 

“What that means for a conclave is the few big-name candidates like Cardinal Parolin start with a huge selection bias in their favor – you can only vote for names you know – but if there isn’t a speedy election it means the field is wide open for a true surprise.”