May 2 is out – but these election dates could be even worse for Sunak

MAY 2024

Rishi has ruled out the 2^nd, but it’s worth noting that in the run-up to the 2019 election, this was the date we expected the one after that to be held. Under the fixed-term parliament act, the first Thursday of the fifth year after a general election was the date of the next election. 

While it was in the Conservative manifesto to repeal the FTPA (which they did), it is at least somewhat dubious that in doing so, the Tories extended the length of their term in the process. In practical terms, an election on the remaining Thursdays of May is highly unlikely as it would involve voting twice in a month, with a confusing clash of campaigns.

JUNE 8, 2024

This is the earliest date an election could be called after the local elections of May 2. It would be likeliest in the scenario of the Tories doing much better than expected in the locals – with the caveat that this fuelled Theresa May’s disastrous decision to call an early election in 2017. Also, very few people expect this set of locals to be anything other than disastrous for the Tories.

JULY-AUGUST 2024

Conventional wisdom dictates against summer elections, largely because lots of people are out of the country or otherwise not paying attention to the news. Additionally, small boat crossings tend to peak in July and August, which would draw significant attention to Sunak’s failed promise to stop all such crossings, making a vote in these months fraught with risk from Reform.

SEPTEMBER 2024

It is all but impossible to hold an election in September, because parliament is in recess from 23 July and must be sitting to be dissolved for an election. As a result, not going to the polls before recess pushes an election to at least mid-October.

OCTOBER 2-24

Unsurprisingly, October has its own problems too! Earlier in the month means an election campaign would clash with the party conferences, which would likely need to be cancelled rather than take place during an election. These are major money-spinners for the parties and so the Tories could cause themselves major headaches if they scuppered their own.

NOVEMBER 2O24

It has been said by more than one person in Westminster that a May election looks like a terrible idea until you see the other options. November is excellent evidence of that: the security services have repeatedly warned against holding an election in early November because it would clash with the US election, and so could disturb international security and market stability.

If an election was called for later in the month, then our election campaign would be ongoing against the backdrop of whatever happens in America. If Sunak wishes to wait until after the dust has settled in the US, then just before Christmas is about as late as the election could happen.

DECEMBER 2024 / JANUARY 2025

This is where the clock runs out. The very last day on which Rishi Sunak could announce a general election is December 17 2024, which would then take place on 28 January 2025 (which would break a longstanding tradition of holding elections on Thursdays). 

This would necessitate an election campaign spanning Christmas, which is generally agreed to be an awful idea, likely to create a backlash among activists and the public alike. Additionally, over 2024 there are 1.6 million households that will need to remortgage their homes, most of whom will pay hundreds of pounds more under new rates – so the later it is left, the more that pain will be felt.

That is the full list of options facing Rishi Sunak, and none of them are good. Sunak could quickly come to regret not opting for May, but that is unlikely to affect his dithering through the rest of the year. 

There will always be a good reason to dither, and there are few reasons to think any of them will improve his situation. 

There is no grand plan. Sunak and his close circle don’t know when the election will be either – and we could yet end up with a depressingly political Christmas.