Youth mobility is not enough

Every little helps, as they say. The Times is reporting that after months of dither and denial, the UK is now willing to allow some return to freedom of movement with the EU, but only for a limited number of under 30-year-olds.

It is a measure of the paranoia being felt by Labour – still in fear of agitating the right-wing Brexit-supporting media – that the plan is to cap this at 70,000 a year on each side. Getting net migration down remains the mantra. Plus ca change, as they say.

The fact is that free movement as it existed when we were in the EU was very good for the British economy. If we are to increase growth, build more homes, construct nuclear power stations and other infrastructure, keep restaurants and bars open and increase exports; more freedom of movement is essential. Youth mobility is a positive, but 70,000 a year is not going to touch the sides.

The building industry alone claims to need another quarter of a million construction workers over the next five years to meet demand. Yet more people are leaving the industry than joining and it needs to triple the number of apprentices a year (to around 100,000) to even maintain its current workforce.

The situation is even worse in catering and hospitality, where there are 125,000 vacancies. Pubs, cafes and restaurants are closing every day for lack of workers. The NHS and the care sector are dependent on immigrants, and 10% of manufacturers report skilled staff shortages. The list goes on and on.

But the worst problem is almost invisible. Service exports are hugely dependent on free movement and flexibility – be it for British architects, Scottish engineering consultancies or Italian bankers, the ability to travel and work across the continent is vital and it disappeared with Brexit.

The services sector has managed to increase exports to the EU since 2019 by 8%, but its sales to the rest of the world rose by 15%. We seem to have mislaid a 7% rise in EU sales since Brexit.

There is a direct link between immigration and increased service exports, with one study finding that every “10% increase in immigration from non-commonwealth countries is estimated to increase long-run exports by 5%.” We were and are closely meshed into the European services economy, but without free movement those networks break down and die.

Just 70,000 young, temporary visitors are not going to scratch the surface of these problems. The brutal truth is that we needed those Polish plumbers, Bulgarian brickies, Danish doctors, Croatian cooks, and Italian insurance brokers all along and we still desperately do. They make

If we are to grow more strongly or even build enough homes, we need full freedom of movement back. And it is nowhere in sight.