Starmer is penned in by May’s red lines

We are almost at the 100th anniversary of the invention of “red lines”, a phrase first used in 1928 when, at the end of the Ottoman Empire, businessman Calouste Gulbenkian used a red pencil to trace its borders so some of its oil assets could be carved up between Britain, the USA, France and – luckily for Gulbenkian – himself.

That deal, known as the Red Line Agreement, was signed in Belgium. Now Sir Keir Starmer is visiting the same country to discuss his “Brexit reset”, but will not come away from Brussels with anything like as good a result as Gulbenkian did in Ostend all those years ago. And ironically, red lines are to blame.

Britain has had its shifting red lines on Europe for decades – Margaret Thatcher had plenty of them though didn’t use the phrase, Tony Blair had his about the EU constitution and did use the phrase. David Cameron fatally ran into the EU’s red lines on freedom of movement in 2015 when he went to Brussels desperate for concessions ahead of the referendum.

But the red lines that did most damage have not shifted and are still damaging Britain today. They are the ones laid out by Theresa May in her 2016 Tory conference speech, invented without even telling the Cabinet about them, and quite obviously without May understanding them at all.

Her decision to rule out freedom of movement, membership of the single market and membership of the customs union became written in stone and having outlasted four Tory PMs, has now been adopted by Starmer and his government.

The PM is a bright man but if he hasn’t yet worked out the consequences of that decision, this summit in Brussels with the EU is about to feel very like Cameron’s trip with the begging bowl 10 years ago. The EU will listen politely to his red lines and then they will say no to the deep, growth-creating alignment that Britain needs because of them.

Without negotiating on and around the issues of free movement, the customs union and the Single Market the “reset” is a pretty pathetic thing. We are even ruling out a deal to allow British and EU students and young people to work and study across Europe – seen apparently as a bridge too far for the UK, while for the EU it is not only a no-brainer but a sign that the UK is not serious about a “reset”.

We therefore fail pretty much before we start and are left looking for scraps to come home with, but scraps which are not so big that the Brexiteers scream “treason”. Already The Times’ front page headline on Monday is that the French are demanding the UK “eat humble pie” and admit Brexit was a mistake before agreeing to anything.

If a little bit of honesty was all it took to get a deal that would be well worth it, but the headline is not interesting for its realism but for the lie and the threat it contains: Brexit was a triumph and don’t you forget it or we are coming for you.

So instead of the glittering prize, negotiations on a deal on veterinary and plant standards might be agreed. Maybe the UK could join the weak-as-onion-water Pan Euro Mediterranean Convention, which might make things slightly easier for manufacturers. Perhaps we can have some talks on carbon trading.

But this is fiddling at the edges, this is not a “reset”. Those red lines are like a path through a minefield, a minefield we have laid around ourselves but from which there is no escape and no room for manoeuvre.

And hanging over all this is President Trump and his threat of a trade war with the EU – an organisation that he says is “an atrocity” for American trade. Britain, he says, is “out of line” too but that the situation “can be worked out” because Starmer has “been very nice” to him so far. You have been warned, Keir.

So much for sovereignty and independence, we can’t even negotiate in our own best interests and even if we could, President Trump would punish us. So thanks, Theresa – thanks a bunch.