Our Army is so small it can’t put a single armoured division in the field of battle and won’t be able to for years. Our RAF is losing pilots quicker than it can train them. Our Navy is short of just about everything – sailors, ships and planes.
On top of that, much of the equipment we do have is either worn out, under-maintained or mothballed. While we and everyone else are dependent on the Americans doing the heavy lifting; providing the intelligence, satellites, logistics, and all the rest which is expensive and essential but not really visible and which therefore is underfunded by nearly every other member of NATO, except the United States.
This is the message from various retired admirals, field marshals and air marshals who since Labour gained power have been queuing up to tell various media outlets that we need to increase defence spending well beyond the current target of 2.5% of GDP to a minimum of 3.5%.
Strange that they kept so very quiet when they were in charge and the Tories were slashing their budgets year after year and telling them to do more with less. Now Labour are in power, there is not a moment to lose and they must find the money immediately.
Of course, defence matters have now been brought to the forefront by Donald Trump’s impending sell-out of Ukraine and his emboldening of the dictator Vladimir Putin. Yet despite fears over Russia and Ukraine, the other priorities which also demand attention and funding will not go away.
The list of things which the Tories ran down is a very long one. Schools falling down, an NHS on its knees, no funding for new hospitals, not enough prisons, too few police, terrible social care, nowhere near enough investment, failing universities, bankrupt councils, bad public transport, potholes everywhere.
The chancellor could shock the Commons by saying: “I have listened to these former service leaders and I believe them when they say the Tories have cut their forces to the bone and beyond so badly that we can no longer defend ourselves, nor aid our allies. I therefore support the opposition’s calls to massively increase defence spending.”
But we all know if she went on to say “We are therefore extending the Tory party’s
freeze on tax bands and increasing both the lower and higher tax rates and increasing fuel
duty” it would end in tears very quickly. The Tories and Reform would destroy Labour, with
claims of broken promises and wasted money. They would claim the money could be found elsewhere – probably by cutting wokery, or some other specious lie.
What else can Labour do? The markets are distinctly jittery about the increase in borrowing that the chancellor has already announced, so to find the extra 1% of GDP defence needs would mean very heavy cuts somewhere else. The big spending departments are the NHS, pensions, other benefits for those of working age and education.
In short, you can have guns or butter, but where do you want less butter?
The current defence review is supposed to be squaring this circle, it all points to another
exercise in salami slicing, can kicking and crossed fingers. Except for one thing.
Brexit has cost the UK 4-5% of GDP. With that you could increase the defence budget by 1% of GDP and hardly notice, you’d also have money left over for everything else too.
The UK is still trying to do everything it used to do but with less money, including defend
itself. We all know where the money has gone, but no one will mention it.
Brexit has cost us both guns and butter.
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