Inflation falls, but it’s nothing to do with Sunak

You might have thought that the prime minister has had an awful couple of weeks. What with the UK being in a recession, his former deputy chairman deserting the sinking ship and joining Reform, and his main donor turning out to be a racist.

But we are all wrong – the PM has had a great time and the “plan is working”.

That plan is to bring down inflation, or more accurately it is to wait for inflation to fall and then to pathetically try to claim credit for it falling.

It shows that we massively underestimate the power and reach of the British state and the personal power of Rishi Sunak. With just a few helicopter trips to the regions and an iron will, the prime minister has brought inflation tumbling to 3.4%. This was “his plan” and it is working.

To be fair to the cynical, unpatriotic types who sneer at this achievement, it is only proper to point out that Mr. Sunak has not succeeded in any of the other four tests he set himself in January 2023. Growing the economy, stopping the small boats, bringing down NHS waiting times or reducing debt – all of these are policies over which he has some control and he has proved ineffective in all of them.

As he said at the time “I fully expect you to hold my government and I to account on delivering those goals,” which may explain why he is so keen to claim to have brought down inflation.

The small, almost midget sized elephant in the room is that of the five tests that the PM set himself, the only one he managed to pass was the one he has no control over.

Over 25 years ago, Gordon Brown gave the Bank of England sole and exclusive responsibility for keeping inflation at around 2%. It does so by increasing interest rates and it does that in complete independence, free from any and all political influence.

What the government, let alone the prime minister, has done to bring down international energy prices, or the cost of cabbages, is beyond my ken, or the ability of even the government to explain. Their argument seems to be: “He just has, so there.”

The government will, quite naturally, be examining the opinion polls with particular intensity in the coming weeks and months. It thinks this kind of thing plays well with the electorate. Although, how much credit the government will get for not being responsible for years of high inflation and low wage growth coming to an end, it is hard to say.

This seems to be “government by coincidence”, something less worse has happened – we are responsible.

I can only assume that the PM is holding out for his cunning plan to come to fruition in the summer.

An England victory in the Euros and the man responsible; the man who ordered Gareth Southgate to play 4,4,3, none other than Rishi of the Rovers, will use his victory to call and win a general election.