It’s too late for the Democrats to replace Biden

It certainly doesn’t come as a surprise to voters in swing states, who have seen non-stop adverts showing Biden apparently stumbling or confused. Fox News viewers have seen little else for months.

Instead, it is the Democratic Party elite who now seem absolutely poleaxed at the revelation that their candidate for president is an octogenarian. Though Biden pushed through the 90-minute debate despite having a cold that ruined his voice, his rambling and occasional drifting off sparked reactions among elite commentators and former party staffers saying he must urgently be replaced, even while he was still on stage.

These reactions show that the problems in the Democratic Party are much deeper than Joe Biden’s age. This is an issue that voters have been talking about for months and yet the party has relentlessly ignored it throughout the year.

History shows most debates don’t matter to voters, yet before a single bit of polling could be done on this one, the Democrats went into full-scale panic mode. The news cycle is now dominated with questions about whether Biden will be replaced, whether he should be replaced, and who will replace him if he is replaced.

Before we examine the possible candidates, one thing should be said: the best chance to replace Joe Biden was in the primary season. The only realistic prospect of replacing Biden at this late stage is convincing him to step aside before he is officially nominated at the convention in Chicago. There is no process within the Democratic Party to forcibly replace him.

There are calamitous escalations the Democrats might briefly consider: they could use the 25th amendment to try to suggest Biden is mentally unfit to be president, which would replace him with Kamala Harris, but this would be electorally catastrophic and would not actually replace Biden on the Democratic ticket for 2024.

Replacing Joe Biden means persuading Biden that he has less chance of winning than another Democrat would. No-one managed that sale when a new candidate would have had time for a proper selection process and introduction to the electorate. Convincing Biden that a panicked last-minute replacement would do better is an even harder job.

There are candidates that are superficially convincing as replacements. Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, is the main target for hopes of a new candidate, and he could make an impressive nominee one day.

However, he’s never worked in DC and doesn’t yet have a fundraising infrastructure out of state. As the governor of a state that is painted by Republicans as a crime and immigration-ridden liberal hellhole, the attack lines on Newsom write themselves.

San Francisco is widely believed to be a crime hotspot filled with homeless people and drug addicts. California has sanctuary state policies on illegal immigration. Without any practice in a primary season, Newsom would be coming in unpractised and untested.

Others look at Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer as a possibility – unlike Newsom, she is governor of a must-win swing state. But the US electorate still punishes women in the presidential contest (just ask Hillary Clinton), and Whitmer is at the centre of various conspiracies in Fox News world.

In reality, given she is vice president, Kamala Harris would probably be the most likely person to whom the baton would be passed. But she has had at best mixed reviews as VP even from her own side, and has rarely polled better than Biden in must-win states.

Democrats did not settle on a candidate who would be 86 at the end of his next presidential term by accident. Poll after poll showed that even with all of his frailties and weaknesses as a candidate, Biden was – somehow – the party’s best hope of holding off Donald Trump.

The actual calculus of that bet did not change last night. What changed was that Biden’s performance was so poor that people at the top of the Democratic Party could not deny or explain away Biden’s age and what it means.

Biden has achieved a huge amount in his first term, especially given how divided Congress is – he’s been doing the job well. He just does not remotely look the part.

In reality, the decision of the Supreme Court to delay one of the key criminal cases against Donald Trump – his role in the January 6 insurrection – for as long as they possibly could will likely be the most consequential thing that happens in the presidential race this week.

But Democrats have shown their fundamental long-term weakness this week, and it’s not Joe Biden’s age. It is that even with as clear and present a danger as a second Trump term staring at them, they are unable to commit to a plan and they are terrified of their own shadows. That will kill them just as surely as age ever could.