Is Rishi Sunak about to call an election?

Let’s start with the rumour: substantial portions of Westminster are sharing speculation that Rishi Sunak will call an election on Monday. Depending who you ask it’s just being mooted, is close to a sure thing, is entirely made up, or is something that has Labour on high alert to enter campaign mode.

The rumour is not confined within one particular party, though there is some confusion: most people are fairly sure it refers to next Monday – April 29 – but there is a faction that insists it is in fact the following Monday – May 6 – after the local elections.

The logic of calling an election on either date would be that Sunak had decided the risk of an internal leadership challenge was so great that it was worth going to the voters instead (a plot device genuinely used as a season-ending cliffhanger in The Thick Of It).

Calling an election on the 29th would mean the Conservatives would be forced to stay united as the results of the local elections – expected to be disastrous for the party – came in, but would be more subtle as a means to avoiding a leadership contest than calling it the following week, after they were known.

In reality, this rumour is probably wrong, though anyone who writes a story saying otherwise is in a win/win situation. If an election isn’t called, the journalist and outlet can claim that Rishi Sunak “bottled it” because of their reporting. If it is, they can claim you heard it there first.

The problem for Sunak is that this is his life now, until he finally relents and calls an election. Almost nobody expects the polls to recover to a point at which there would be a good time to call an election, and the issue with picking the least-bad time is that things can always get worse.

Until Sunak actually just pulls the trigger and calls an election, any good moment or any setback alike will be interpreted through the lens of what it means for the timing of that decision. He is less than two years into his premiership but every action he takes is interpreted through its expected end.

Yes, the media and the political class alike are overly concerned with the timing of the election, to a point that it is probably as boring for readers as it is for those writing the stories or featuring within them.

But it is also inescapable – elections drastically change the employment prospects of almost everyone in SW1, and so they concentrate the mind. By refusing to rule any particular dates in or out, Rishi Sunak has ensured that the timing of an election will feature to some extent in coverage every week that remains of his term as PM.

The curse of Westminster journalism is that if a reporter wants to check out a rumour, they necessarily spread it: the very act of asking a special advisor or backbencher if they’ve heard anything about X means that person will almost certainly message a few of their friends asking about X.

Let that process repeat a few times and the reporter will hear X back from someone else – who has no idea they heard it indirectly from them. Suddenly, X is double-sourced.

Perhaps this time it’s true and we’re heading for an election on June 13 or 20. But if it’s not, expect to keep hearing the rumours.

The only person who can stop them is Rishi Sunak – in this, if perhaps nothing else, he’s got the power. You have to hope he’s enjoying it, because almost no-one else is.