“Change” is a powerful word, one that has resonated for voters across the globe in 2024, from Britain and continental Europe to the USA and Asia. But as the process of counting the votes cast on a wet and miserable day began, it became clear Ireland had largely chosen more of the same. Although the precise outcome of Ireland’s complex voting system may not be known for days, the next government is likely to look pretty much like the last one.
What is remarkable about the result is how unremarkable it feels. The two centrist parties previously in power – Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil – look set to remain so. Their main opposition, Sinn Féin, received 19% of first-preference votes, only slightly below the two large coalition parties, but a hoped-for huge breakthrough has failed to materialise this time. Fears of a far right push evaporated too – of 60 extreme candidates, none were elected.
Not even the election’s “celebrity” candidate managed to win. There was fascination with the attempt by gangland figure Gerard “the Monk” Hutch to win a seat in Dublin. A war between people it is alleged have links to Hutch and the rival Kinahan organisation has resulted in 18 deaths across the city in the last decade.
In the end, he lost narrowly after contesting the election in his inner-city base while out on bail for money-laundering charges in Spain. Hutch appeared briefly at the count, where he was asked if he would be running again. “I’ve been running my whole life,” he said.
With Sinn Féin again locked out of power, the country remains in the hands of Fine Gael, headed by Taoiseach Simon Harris, and Fianna Fáil, led by former Taoiseach Micheál Martin. While the centre right parties have been rivals since the civil war a century ago, these days there is little to differentiate between them.
After the 2020 election they formed a coalition for the first time alongside the Green Party. That looks likely to be repeated, though this time without the Greens, who were nearly wiped out in the election. Instead, they are likely to approach the Social Democrats – whose leader, Holly Cairns, had a baby on election day – and Labour, which hold similar left-of-centre views.
What will the new government do to approach a strange moment in the country’s history, when Ireland is simultaneously thriving and struggling with a number of crises? While the country boasts full employment and a huge budget surplus, some voters expressed anger at the cost of living and a chronic inability to build enough houses, followed by concerns over healthcare.
The exit poll data showed the differing priorities of Irish voters. Almost half of those voting for left-leaning Sinn Féin said housing and homelessness were their most pressing concerns, while only 17% of those supporting the two government parties said the same.
On election day, homelessness figures hit a record high of nearly 15,000. It’s an issue that dates back to the financial crash, ever since when the supply of affordable housing has been inadequate. There are many reasons – one is a lack of investment in social housing, despite Ireland becoming one of Europe’s richest countries. With a huge influx of Ukrainian refugees and a surge in numbers of asylum seekers from elsewhere since 2022, the country was suddenly rocked by anti-immigration protests.
Just over a year before the general election, rioters set vehicles in the centre of Dublin ablaze. The riots were fuelled by far right agitators after an attack on schoolchildren in the city centre led to false rumours online that the attack was perpetrated by a foreign national. Anti-immigrant protests continued in the months that followed, leading up to the local and European elections in May, during which five candidates with far right agendas were elected.
Yet, while this election has defied the European trend to the right, around 6% of voters said immigration was their primary concern, which suggests that the issue might not be about to disappear. And the results may indicate that, as elsewhere in Europe, the main parties have hardened their stance on immigration in a bid to stem their losses.
One big takeaway from this election is the evaporation of support for the Green Party, which lost 11 of its 12 seats. The exit poll showed just 4% of voters making the climate crisis their main priority. A rueful party leader, Roderic O’Gorman, said: “I suppose enough people weren’t feeling in their pocket that the Greens were as focused at insulating people from the cost of living spikes that the other two parties were.”
For those who voted for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, economic stability came high on their list of priorities. The topic came up regularly during the campaign, with the coalition leaders warning of turbulent times ahead now that Donald Trump is returning to the White House.
Ireland’s economy has long depended on foreign direct investment and its corporate tax returns mainly from the American tech and pharmaceutical industries. The president-elect’s threat of tariffs on foreign imports and his plan to force industry back to the US could be catastrophic for Ireland’s economy, despite its €24bn (£20bn) budget surplus.
Trump has promised to slash corporation tax from 21% to 15%, meaning Ireland’s current 15% tax will no longer undercut that of America. Last week, Harris said that Ireland could lose €10bn in corporate tax if just three US companies leave. Meanwhile, exports to the US make up 28% of all Irish exports and could now face a 20% tariff if Trump carries through his threats.
The election results appear to point to fearful voters taking heed of Harris’s warning that Ireland will need a “stable government” going into 2025. But record low turnout at 59.7% – down from 63% in 2020 – may indicate an undercurrent of apathy among the population, with many feeling their vote is unlikely to make a difference.
However the new government is made up – and it could be the new year before we know for sure – its stability will depend on how well it deals with both global volatility and problems at home. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have made lavish spending promises, with a big focus on housing and infrastructure, as well as maintaining a rainy day fund.
Ireland’s high cost of living is linked to steep housing prices, but lowering those will depend on increasing supply through faster construction. And meeting these promises will hinge entirely on continued budget surpluses coming from corporation tax.
With potentially rocky times ahead in 2025, a vote for continuity and stability is no guarantee the government will be able to find it.
