How Le Pen wrote the rules of her own downfall

Marine Le Pen has no one but herself to blame. Not only has she been ruled to be at the centre of a political scam worth millions, she is the literal author of her own downfall.

For all her supporters’ empty rage about lawfare and an attack on democracy, her presidential ambitions lie in tatters in a way Donald Trump’s never did. She is a victim of the strict rules she demanded and voted for – a ban on convicted corrupt politicians from running for office.

The French judicial system, despite immense political pressure from the “Je Suis Marine” far right galaxy shouting about a “judicial coup” and a “dictatorship of judges”, has ultimately applied the letter of that law. It has come as a shock to the National Rally leader.

Le Pen remained in denial throughout the investigation and trial, and clearly thought she would get off with only a suspended prison term and fine – despite being found to have been at the apex of a complex and long-running fake jobs scam that funnelled millions of euros from Brussels to her National Rally party in France.

Declared a convicted embezzler alongside eight of her Euro deputies, she will need more than the Kremlin’s backing and its international hyenas crying foul to resuscitate the Le Pen brand. Yet the verdict means France is entering a highly risky and uncertain political period, as the National Rally, MAGA-aping right wing demagogues and even far left populists like Jean-Luc Mélenchon try to capitalise on the judgement to attack the integrity of the French justice system and even call for its overthrow.

Le Pen’s judicial woes significantly reshuffle the French political landscape, potentially to the detriment of the National Rally. Jordan Bardella, who underperformed in the July legislative elections, is considered a less formidable candidate than Le Pen, who carries the party’s familial brand.

The ban on Le Pen also clears the way for hard right and centre right figures to advance their pre-presidential campaigns. Hardline conservative interior minister Bruno Retailleau and head of the parliamentary Les Républicains group Laurent Wauquiez are both contenders to lead the right wing LR party in May elections and each harbours presidential ambitions.

Former interior minister and current justice minister Gérald Darmanin, along with former prime minister Édouard Philippe, are also poised to scale up their political activities. Le Pen’s telegenic niece, Marion Maréchal, once a Steve Bannon favourite, and considered even more hard right than her aunt, could be tapped to carry on the family’s political legacy.

A reeling Le Pen could hardly believe the verdict, her political career and cherished Elysée Palace aspirations seemingly ruined. Sputtering “Incroyable!” and accompanied by her closest aides, she stormed out of the courtroom before the judgment was even fully read, refusing to hear her sentence.

The ruling excludes Le Pen and eight of her European MEPs from running for election after illegally funneling more than 4 million euros from the European Parliament into fake jobs that financed National Rally. It condemned Le Pen for being “at the heart of this system” even if she did not enrich herself personally.

And this is the irony. In 2013, Le Pen called for a lifetime ban on elected representatives found guilty of corruption, saying, “When are we going to put in place a lifetime ban for elected representatives found guilty for acts committed thanks to or during their mandate?”

This ruling is both a contrast with and a lesson to the United States, where the legal system failed to disqualify Trump from the presidency despite his felony convictions. France has demonstrated that its judiciary remains independent and willing to hold powerful figures accountable.

Le Pen will appeal her four-year jail sentence (none of it actually be to served in prison) and 100,000-euro fine, but the political damage is severe. She may well be forced both to step down as an MP for Pas-de-Calais and renounce her presidential ambitions, despite still having avenues for appeal, albeit limited ones. She is also expected to hand over the reins of her father Jean-Marie Le Pen’s party to her protégé Jordan Bardella, who immediately denounced the ruling, calling it an execution of French democracy.

National Rally, already burdened with massive financial liabilities, is signaling an attempt to stoke MAGA-style hysteria by casting Le Pen as a martyr of judicial overreach. The success of such efforts will depend on a disinformation campaign that is already starting.

Le Pen’s far right international supporters naturally rushed immediately to her defence. The Kremlin was the first to react, even before French politicians, condemning what it called a “violation of democratic norms,” and reinforcing its longstanding support for Le Pen (it has also been her party’s banker) as an essential figure in advancing Russian influence in France. Hungary’s Viktor Orbán posted “Je suis Marine,” while in Italy, Matteo Salvini fumed about “Brussels waging war on democracy”.

Far left populist Mélenchon, Tweedledee to Le Pen’s Tweedledum and desperate to overthrow the current fifth French Republic, stayed true to form: “The decision to remove an elected official should be up to the people. This is what a recall referendum would be for in a democratic Sixth Republic.”

Le Pen’s reaction to the ruling was not one of dignity or accountability. Instead of facing the consequences of her actions, she stomped out of the courtroom the moment she heard she would be banned from running for office.

It was an unambiguous display of her contempt for the justice system and clearly staged for the cameras even if her shock seemed authentic.

While Le Pen’s defenders claim she is a victim of “government by judiciary” the reality is that the court applied the law as written, in response to an elaborate and systematic fraud operation involving huge sums of public money. The decision was handed down just days after the Paris prosecutor requested a seven-year prison sentence for Nicolas Sarkozy and a 300,000-euro fine for his corruption in taking Gaddaffi money to finance his 2007 campaign. France’s judges are showing they will apply the law on political and financial corruption, no matter who is accused.

The question remains: will Le Pen be able to marshal her supporters in the streets and launch a martyrdom campaign, attacking the judiciary just as Trump has done in the US? Her appeals process will allow her to continue contesting the decision, and she will undoubtedly attempt to run regardless of the ruling.

The battle is now between the rule of law and the far right’s claim that legal accountability is a form of political persecution. But for Benjamin Sire, journalist and editorialist at Franc-Tireur, those crying about the “end of the rule of law” in response to this decision seem to be many of the same ones who openly support real dictatorships, such as Russia.

He said: “The rule of law means applying the law, which is precisely what the court courageously did, despite immense pressure. Today is a victory for justice, but not without risks.

“Those who seek to dismantle democracy will use this ruling as a rallying cry, twisting its meaning to serve their own illiberal ambitions. French justice has done its job courageously, but not without peril.”