Canada isn’t used to its domestic politics receiving global attention, but rather than enjoying the moment, people seem more aghast at the situation they find themselves in. The aggressive language from Donald Trump and his supporters about making Canada the 51st State of the USA has created a new atmosphere, where the traditional Canadian polite reserve has given way to a more direct challenge. Put simply; are you with us, or for Trump?
In suburban Toronto, shop windows and front porches proudly display the Canadian flag, in scenes more usually reminiscent of life in the USA. In Montreal, I was told by a serious-minded former government official that he was seeking to secure his gun licence, and that lots of his friends were doing the same.
Even the legendary Canadian ice-hockey player Wayne Gretzky, previously known as “The Great One”, has faced public calls of “betrayal” for his links to Donald Trump. Gretzky was invited to the president’s inauguration in January and visited him several times in recent months at his Florida home Mar-a-Lago. Last month Gretzky was the honorary captain of the team which defeated the USA 3-2 in the Boston final of the Four Nations Face-Off, but was booed by Canadian fans in the arena.
These feelings are also having a profound effect on Canada’s politics. Their new prime minister, Mark Carney, has adopted a tough line against Trump’s imperial ambitions for the north American continent, as well as his trade tariffs. This has created problems for the Canadian Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre.
Poilievre’s “Canada First” campaign may now seem too Trumpian for some voters, and others may question his endorsement in January from Elon Musk. Within the next couple of weeks, Canada will be into a federal election where the central theme will be: who can secure Canada’s interests in the new world order?
Carney’s challenge to Poilievre is clear. He is, says Carney, “a person who worships at the altar of Donald Trump will kneel before him, not stand up to him”. In the biggest polling shift in Canadian history, the Conservatives have gone from being over twenty percentage points ahead of the Liberal government, to now running neck and neck. The unpopularity of the outgoing prime minister Justin Trudeau, and his replacement by Mark Carney, is a factor in that shift in support – but so is the spectre of Donald Trump.
Poilievre has clearly identified the desire of the Canadian people for a change in government, and his party may well still win, but an election which last year seemed certain to herald the return of the Conservatives to government, now looks like being a close-run thing.
Whatever the result, this Canadian election will also create a challenge for the political leaders of her allies in Europe, and in particular the UK. Canadians feel that there has been a lack of solidarity from their British cousins, and that Keir Starmer’s attempts to placate and accommodate the American president – presenting him with an invitation from the King to a state visit to the United Kingdom – have left them out in the cold.
When the new Canadian House of Commons convenes in May after their federal election, this could create the perfect moment to demonstrate the close bonds that bind our nations. In both 1957 and 1977, Queen Elizabeth II opened a new session of the Canadian parliament. 2025 would be the perfect moment for the King to do the same, and remind Donald Trump, who the head of state in Canada actually is.
We should also be exploring the wider opportunities for a UK-Canadian partnership in trade and defence. In trade, this should include not just physical goods and the natural resources that Canada has in such abundance, but also standing together against American attempts to roll back the digital regulations we have created to secure fair competition, data privacy rights and safety online.
British and Canadian forces have fought together to uphold democracy and the rule of law around the world for more than a century. In my former parliamentary constituency of Folkestone and Hythe, the military cemetery at Shorncliffe holds the graves of over 300 Canadian soldiers of the First World War. This partnership will remain vital to our future interests as well.
Some years ago as a newish MP, I asked the former admiral of the fleet, Mike Boyce, what in his opinion was the strategic imperative behind the construction of our massive Queen Elizabeth class aircraft carriers. Where in the world was it that we were looking to project power, where we didn’t already have bases that we could operate from? His answer was, the Arctic.
The imperative to secure the interests of the NATO alliance may well require us to secure new shipping routes through the Artic region as the ice caps retreat, and to protect the resources and citizens of those territories. This would surely create another great opportunity for the UK and Canada to work together, with or without the support of the Americans.
Damian Collins was Conservative MP for Folkestone and Hythe from 2010 to 2024 and a former UK government minister. He is currently a senior fellow at the Centre for Media, Technology and Democracy at the Max Bell School of Public Policy, McGill University, Montreal
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