Brexit’s failure and Trump’s fury have turned the tide for the UK and EU

Next week marks five years of economic struggle since the UK officially left the EU. This week marked the start of four years of cruelty and recklessness now Donald Trump has officially become US president.

But there is some light in the darkness. Two recent polls show the failure of Brexit and the threat of another damaging Trump presidency are having a transformative effect on the opinions of ordinary Britons, drawing them closer to Europe and further away from the United States.

The first is a YouGov survey of 6,421 adults on January 21 which asked, among other questions: “Who would you rather have as a closer trading partner to the UK?” 53% of respondents went for the European Union and only 21% for the USA – a rise of three points for Europe since the question was asked in 2019, with America standing still. An already wide gap is widening still further.

The findings are echoed by a nationally representative Focaldata survey of 1,033 UK adults on December 11-12 last year, when Trump’s re-election had been confirmed. It found 53% saying that Britain should now prioritise Europe as an ally over the USA, with 31% saying the opposite. When compared with data from historic polls, it is almost the complete reverse – in 1967, the British public backed America over Europe by 53% to 33%.

But another Focaldata finding is equally significant. When asked what kind of country they thought the UK should try to be, the public are now almost twice as likely to plump for the idea of trying to be like Sweden and Switzerland (51%) rather than being a leading world power (28%).

This feels like a repudiation, based in realism about our place in the world, of the empty Brexit jingoism and British exceptionalism espoused by the likes of Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage. And again, it’s an almost mirror image of attitudes from the 1960s – in 1964, 51% said Britain should attempt to be a world power and 32% opted for following Sweden and Switzerland’s example.

Of course, these results aren’t just because of the twin nightmares of Trump and Brexit. They also reflect years of closer ties with the partners who are closest to us and years of increasing political distance from the one which is further away. Britain now believes its most special relationship is with the EU, not the US.

Games of diplomacy must be played, but these findings make it even more absurd that a Labour government desperate for growth remains so reluctant when offered chances by the EU to alleviate some of the difficulties of being outside the bloc.

Donald Trump threatens to make Europe and Britain poorer and less stable via tariffs and the sell-out of Ukraine. The European Union offers to make us better off by easing red tape. It is time to recognise who our friends are.