Brexit compromise on the Northern Ireland Protocol spells danger for Sunak

News is beginning to filter out that there is a compromise available on possible changes to the Northern Ireland Protocol. There would be red and green lanes for British goods shipped into Northern Irish ports – those staying in NI would be green and unchecked; those moving through into the Republic and the wider EU would be red, and still require checks.

Crucially, the lanes would cover not just ordinary goods but food products and live animals too, dealing with the much-discussed sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) problems that have caused logjams both at the border and in negotiations so far. And disputes involving only the flow of goods into the Republic/EU would be dealt with by the European Court of Justice (ECJ),

It seems like a sensible approach. Yet to some, this will look far more like a UK backdown than a real compromise.

Cutting red tape and minimising delays is hardly the total destruction of the border down the Irish Sea that Boris Johnson and Lord Frost so successfully negotiated without bothering to tell their friends in the European Research Group and the Democratic Unionist Party.

In fact, making the border work a bit better but still allowing for the ECJ to have the final say on legal matters is just common sense. Which is nice to see – the idea that the UK should renege on an international treaty it signed only a few years ago was both shocking and stupid, damaging not only the UK’s relationship with the EU but also with the United States as well. It was a threat which achieved nothing and has done immense damage to the country’s reputation.

But if Rishi Sunak thinks that his problems are over, he will be deluding himself. Brexit is an internal Tory civil war more than anything else and his opponents will use this compromise to try to destroy him, because in their eyes he is now a traitor.

For months now, they have been talking as if Sunak did not support Brexit, when in fact he did. It seems that for the Brexiteers, his faith has not been pure enough, he is not willing to do more damage to the country in order to have a “perfect” Brexit and so he is now the enemy of the ERG. 100-plus backbench MPs will take any compromise on the NIP as a signal that yet another Tory PM has to go.

Why do you think that Johnson is suddenly making media appearances, touring the country and visiting Ukraine? He really believes that he can make it back to No. 10 and the NIP could well be the cause around which he will rally his troops for a counter-revolution.

A better illustration of the madness of Brexit it is harder to think of.

The border down the Irish Sea was Johnson’s idea. Having assured the DUP and ERG that it would never happen, he negotiated it, signed it, voted for it, was caught on camera openly lying about it and won an election advocating it.

Yet such is the state of the Tory party that they may bring back the second-worst PM in British history because he will promise to tear it up completely.

The damage that this would do is incalculable; to the economy, to the country, to cooperation with the EU, to trade and to the relationship with the White House.

But Boris Johnson has already proved that damaging the country is worth it. Worth it, that is, if he gets to be king of the world.

For more from Jonty Bloom, go to jonty.substack.com.