Brexit broke the immigration system – can Starmer fix it?

The irony will not be lost on readers. In immigration terms, Brexit, it turns out, is the gift that keeps on giving. Since the referendum, the UK has seen net migration hit record levels, peaking at 906,000 in 2023. While external factors such as the war in Ukraine contributed to this rise, mostly it has been a result of the liberal immigration regime ushered in by the former Conservative government to replace free movement. Instead of taking back control, we seem to have lost it.

With the election looming, measures were introduced to bring numbers down, including bans on dependents in some visa categories and a rise in the salary threshold for Skilled Worker visas to £38,700. These measures have had an effect. Provisional ONS figures for the year ending June 2024 indicate a 20% reduction in net migration.

Labour is committed to bringing numbers down further. Keir Starmer’s key immigration policy is to cut demand for overseas workers by identifying the skills gaps being filled by migrant workers and training domestic workers to fill those roles. Yvette Cooper announced more details on how this will be achieved this week when she explained that the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) which advises the government on immigration, will be strengthened and will be more strategic. It will forecast future trends and work closely, as part of the “quad”, with the newly formed Skills England, the Department for Work and Pensions and the Industrial Strategy Council.

From the perspective of someone well versed in visa procedure, I believe the policy has flaws – MAC has itself questioned the policy. Firstly, it makes the questionable assumption that there is an untapped reserve of domestic workers waiting to be trained in new skills. That is unlikely. And if those workers can be found, training takes time. On average it takes a minimum of three years to train as a nurse and a minimum of two years to train as an electrician.

According to a report from the Edge Foundation, the education think tank, the number of skills shortage vacancies doubled between 2017 and 2022 to 531,200. There is no reason to assume that the figure has not risen since. That means the Labour government will need to find and train half a million workers now, plus those who will be needed to replace retirees – 1.4 million more people are projected to retire over the next 17 years than will enter the workforce.

You don’t have to be a mathematician to see that UK businesses will have to continue relying on migrant workers whether the army of domestic skilled workers materialises or not.

For this reason it is likely that while net migration will continue to decline, for the next few years at least it will remain high, and will stabilise between 500,000 and 600,000, if not higher, as demand for skilled worker visas remains buoyant. With so many sectors reporting recruitment difficulties, even the high salary threshold is unlikely to put off employers in traditionally high-wage sectors such as IT and finance. And as the Heath and Care worker visa is not subject to the same threshold, many migrants will continue to use that as a route to the UK.

To bring numbers down further, the prime minister could consider placing limits on the number of visas issued in certain job roles, particularly if data shows that some sectors are relying on cheaper labour from overseas rather than training UK workers. However, any such measures will be tweaks, rather than major policy shifts.

Indeed, next year, as Labour continues to draw closer to Europe, we may see the introduction of a youth mobility scheme allowing young EU and UK citizens to live, work and study in the UK and the EU respectively.

In April 2024, the then Conservative government rebuffed the idea, but the EU is reportedly working on fresh proposals and Labour is keen to build bridges with Europe. Such a scheme would make sense and provide a much-needed supply of young, educated workers.

In addition to the UK’s continued negotiations with Europe, another factor that may affect the British immigration landscape is the election of Donald Trump. He wants to reduce legal immigration and has promised stricter controls and enhanced vetting for certain migrant groups, while vowing to create “American jobs for American workers”.

Undoubtedly international migrants, both skilled and unskilled, will find the door to the US closed, or increasingly hard to get through under a Trump-led administration. This means the most attractive country in the world for international migrants, according to the Migration Policy Institute, will largely be out of bounds. A huge talent pool will be looking for other destination countries.

Reports in the Indian press are already highlighting the difficulties that skilled workers are predicted to face should they be interested in moving to the US. This is good news for UK employers.

We could also see a small but significant migration of native US workers, particularly young college and degree-educated professional women who feel disenfranchised by the direction the US has taken.

As long as the Labour government rises above the populist calls for drastic cuts and remains pragmatic about the benefits of immigration and the need for migrant workers, it may yet be able to attract the “brightest and the best” that eluded the Conservatives.

Yash Dubal is a commentator on visa and immigration affairs